我国人身保险市场结构变化与预测分析

虽然保险业经受了本次金融危机的考验,但是保险业可能成为系统性风险传导链条上的一环,因此,保险监管机构需要转变审慎监管方式,建立适合保险业的宏观审慎监管框架。在这个背景下,对中国人身保险市场结构现状有一个较为清晰和准确的认识就显得十分必要。研究发现:从全国范围来说,我国寿险市场主体数量较少,人身险市场集中度过高,市场结构为寡头垄断,但各地区的人身险市场结构又各有特点,经济发达地区人身险保险市场结构已经过渡到垄断竞争阶段。根据成分数据预测结果分析,在"十二五"期间,我国人身险的市场集中度继续呈下降趋势。     

股票市场发展、资本要素积累与产业结构升级

本文从要素流动角度,在中观和微观层面上实证检验了中国A股市场是否存在推动产业结构优化升级的作用机制。实证结果表明,股票市场规模的扩大有效推动了三次产业和工业产业的结构优化升级,市场流动性的高低对产业结构优化升级存在负向效应,而城市化进程的加快及垂直专业化程度的提高可以降低该负向效应;战略性新兴产业上市公司经营绩效显著,并在创业板市场上最具成长性,而且行业内资本集中度越低、市场风险越高,越能激励行业内企业上市。本文据此在扩大股票市场规模、增强市场流动性、上市资源选择、创业板市场建设等方面提出了相应的政策建议。     

Industry concentration,excess returns and innovation in Australia

This paper examines market concentration and stock returns on the Australian Securities Exchange. We find that dominant companies operating in concentrated industries in Australia are able to generate significant risk‐adjusted excess stock returns. Our results for Australian data are opposite to that found by Hou and Robinson (2006) for United States market data. Hou and Robinson reason that United States firms which operate in concentrated industries are insulated from competitive pressures, have lower levels of innovation (Arrow, 1962) and therefore experience lower profitability and stock returns. By contrast, the Australian data show a significant and positive relationship between concentration and innovation expenditure. Therefore, the excess stock returns of dominant companies in Australia are consistent with previous research linking innovation expenditure with excess stock returns. We hypothesize that the apparent contradiction of our results compared with Hou and Robinson (2006) for the United States market is resolved by an examination of the differences in size and competition in United States and Australian industries and the consequent differential ability of dominant companies in the two countries to generate monopoly rents and invest in ‘Schumpeterian’ (Schumpeter, 1942) innovation.     

Price Rigidity and Industrial Concentration: Evidence from the Indonesian Food and Beverages Industry

This paper investigates the relationship between industrial concentration and price rigidity in the Indonesian food and beverages industry. A Cournot model of firm behavior is used in which prices adjust according to a partial adjustment mechanism. The model is applied to panel data of the Indonesian food and beverages industry over the period 1995–2006. The results suggest that industrial concentration has a positive effect on percentage price changes. Furthermore, the speed of price adjustment is higher when the per unit cost of production rises.     

贷款行业集中度对商业银行系统性风险影响的实证研究——基于MES方法

金融危机爆发后,银行业系统性风险得到了广泛的关注。基于2007-2012年中国10家上市银行的相关数据,文章利用MES方法测算系统性风险贡献度,分析贷款行业集中度对商业银行系统性风险的影响。研究结果表明,贷款行业集中度对商业银行系统性风险存在正向影响。因此,商业银行在投放贷款过程中,应该防范贷款行业投向的过度集中,从而减少系统性风险爆发的可能性。该研究结论为我国商业银行合理配置信贷资源提供了有利的依据。     

From reviving tradition to fostering innovation and changing marketing: the evolution of micro-brewing in the UK and US, 1980–2012

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to explore and examine the impressive growth of small and micro-breweries registered in the UK and US from the early 1980s. While the majority of British and American breweries continue to operate in spatially restricted areas and niche markets, a few businesses expanded significantly in terms of production and turnover, gradually acquiring larger shares of the market and competing with multinational producers at home as well as abroad. The cases of BrewDog and Sierra Nevada, used as case study examples in this article, provide an original account on how once-upon-a-time micro-breweries grew into well established companies by pursuing aggressive strategies in terms of marketing and innovation respectively.     

欧盟对华贸易逆差问题研究

在中国与欧盟贸易高速发展的同时,欧盟对华贸易逆差不断扩大。本文运用来自欧盟、世界贸易组织以及中国国内的大量统计数据,对欧盟对华贸易逆差的成因进行解析。分析表明:欧盟的经济政策与欧元的持续升值、中国产业结构的调整、欧盟对华贸易“逆差集中效应”,以及欧盟全球化配置资源的需要促成了欧盟对华贸易逆差不断扩大,这四大因素将对未来欧盟与中国的贸易产生持续的影响。     

用地理集中指数衡量游客集中程度方法的一个改进

地理集中指数用来衡量游客集中度存在着一些不足,其大小受到样本数量多少的影响,既没有一个衡量的标准,又不能进行不同样本数量的结果的比较,且不够直观。考虑引入完全均匀分布的地理集中指数,并计算其与地理集中指数之差,再运用这个差值与完全平均的地理集中指数之比来衡量游客集中度,并称这个比值为游客集中度系数,这一系数可以较科学、直观地反映游客集中程度。     

产业集聚的机制与效应分析——以河南省数据为例

本文改进了Ellision和Glaeser定义的地理集中度指数,建立了产业集中度指数并对河南省2003-2009年20个产业的集聚程度进行了测算。我们的结论是,河南省20个产业在2003-2006年间总体集聚程度提高,在2006-2009年间集聚程度大幅下降;河南省产业集聚程度变动的机制与各产业拥有的垄断优势强弱呈正相关关系;这种垄断优势不一定是大企业所特有的,中小企业如果在技术、管理和品牌方面拥有垄断优势也会加强产业的集聚程度,相反大企业仅仅生产规模大而没有其他的垄断优势,则产业的集聚程度会减弱。Porterd和Krugman的产业集聚促进经济增长的理论并不适合所有的产业;产业集聚如果要促进产业和经济的增长,关键是要培育产业在全国范围内技术、资本、管理和品牌方面的垄断优势;河南省总体的垄断优势在全国有弱化的趋势,因此加紧培育产业的垄断优势就成为河南省乃至各地区经济发展的一项重要任务。     

Prices and market structure: an empirical analysis of the supermarket industry in Chile

This article investigates empirically the relationship between market structure and consumer prices in the supermarket industry in Chile. A panel of monthly data from 16 cities in the period January 1998–September 2006 is used. We find that, the more concentrated the industry in a city, the higher the prices, while the participation of major national chains in cities tends to lower prices. In terms of magnitude, this latter effect prevails over the former. Moreover, the dominant local chain is found to behave differently depending on whether or not one of the national chains is present in the city. Finally, we find that prices rise when a national chain acquires another chain and both were previously in a city (inmerge) while if only one of the two was present (outmerge), prices fall.